Lights, Camera, Speculation: My 2026 Oscar Predictions

The 98th Academy Awards

Mar 11, 2026

At long last, we’ve made it to the final hurdle of awards season! This Sunday, the 98th Academy Awards are taking place, bringing months of campaigning, precursor award ceremonies, and shifting predictions to a close.

Now, with the ceremony just around the corner, it’s time for the final predictions. Who has the momentum, who could pull off an upset, and which films are most likely to leave the night with Oscar gold?

Best Picture: One Battle After Another

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Over the course of awards season, the film has established itself as a dominant force in the race. Taking home best picture at the Gotham Awards, the Golden Globes, the Critic Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild (PGA) and more, it seems that ultimate Oscar glory is certainly within reach. The film is adored by both critics and audiences and with widespread acclaim and strong support across major voting bodies, it enters Oscar night with the kind of momentum that can be difficult for any other contender to overcome.

My choice: Hamnet

Best Director: Ryan Coogler for Sinners

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Considering Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweep at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, this could be wishful thinking. However, Ryan Coogler’s work on Sinners really is something that will be talked about for years to come. His direction balances spectacle and story-telling perfectly, and much of the film’s impact derives from the excellent long-standing team he’s built around him.

Even if Coogler doesn’t take Best Director, the historic achievement of Sinners becoming the most nominated film in Academy Awards history with 16 nominations cements its place as one of the defining films of this awards season.

My choice: Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme

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If you asked me who I predicted to win this a month ago, I would have undoubtedly said Chalamet. Now, I’m not so sure.

The Lead Actor category has seen a variety of winners this award season; Wagner Moura and Chalamet at the Golden Globes, Chalamet at the Critics Choice, Robert Aramayo at the BAFTAs and Michael B. Jordan at the SAG awards. The press tour and award campaigning Chalamet has been embarking on hasn’t done him that many favours, and the category is still very strong this year.

I still believe Chalamet is a top front-runner, mostly because the award feels very overdue. At only 30, he became the youngest actor to receive three best actor nominations since Marlon Brando, and his filmography definitely speaks for itself. I do think Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke both have a great shot at Oscar glory, so this prediction is quite up in the air.

My choice: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

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Do I really need to say much else?

She was fantastic in this role, everybody knows it and everybody agrees. I do think Rose Bryne has a shot for her performance in If I had Legs I’d Kick You, but this is probably the prediction I have the most certainty in.

My Choice: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

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This is another award that hasn’t had a truly consistent winner this award season, Jacob Elordi taking the Critics Choice for Frankenstein and Stellan Skarsgård taking the Golden Globe for Sentimental Value. With the precursors split, the category feels far more open than many of the others heading into Oscar night.

Sean Penn, however, has quietly built strong momentum for his performance in One Battle After Another. In a race without a clear sweep, Penn’s veteran status and the strength of his performance could give him the edge with Academy voters looking to reward a standout supporting turn.

My Choice: Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan for Weapons

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Horror performances rarely gain recognition at the Academy Awards, which makes Amy Madigan’s presence in the race all the more notable. Her chilling turn as Aunt Gladys in Weapons has been impossible for critics and audiences to ignore. Over the course of the season she has quietly built real momentum, winning Best Supporting Actress at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Actor Awards (SAG), as well as several critics’ circle prizes including the New York and Boston film critics groups.

The category itself has been unusually split this year. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for One Battle After Another, while Wunmi Mosaku took the BAFTA for Sinners, leaving the Oscar race far from settled.

If she does pull off the win, it would be a rare moment for the horror genre at the Oscars, and a remarkable late-career triumph for Madigan.

My Choice: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners

Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler for Sinners

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Congratulations on your Oscar Ryan Coogler.

Ryan Coogler proves he’s not just a powerhouse director with his work on Sinners — he’s a strong writer too. However, I’m not counting out Joachim Trier for his work on Sentimental Value just yet.

My Choice: Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

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This looks like one of the safer bets — Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has been sweeping the adapted screenplay awards all season. He’s already taken home the Best Adapted Screenplay prize at the BAFTA Awards, where One Battle After Another dominated with six wins including Best Picture and Best Director.

On top of that, Anderson also won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Adapted Screenplay, and the film’s script was recognised at the Writers Guild Awards, cementing its position as the consensus favourite with both critics and his screenwriting peers.

With so many key precursor victories under his belt, this category feels highly likely to go his way when the envelopes are opened.

My choice: Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

Best Casting: Francine Maisler for Sinners

Francine Maisler enters Oscar night as the favourite in this inaugural Best Casting category, and for good reason. Her work on Sinners was already recognised with a Best Casting and Ensemble win at the Critics Choice Awards, where the film’s ensemble was celebrated for its depth and balance between seasoned stars and breakout talent. Maisler has also taken home multiple Artios Awards from the Casting Society of America, including the Outstanding Achievement in Casting – Big Budget Feature (Drama) for Sinners, adding to her reputation as one of the most decorated casting directors in the industry.

With Sinners leading the historic Oscar nominations and its ensemble widely praised across awards season, Maisler looks well‑positioned to take home the Academy’s first Best Casting award.

My Choice: Francine Maisler for Sinners

Best Cinematography: Michael Baunam for One Battle After Another

One Battle After Another – official trailer (Warner Bros.)

Michael Bauman’s cinematography has been widely praised this season for its mix of technical precision and striking visuals. He’s already won Best Cinematography at the Critics Choice Awards and earned acclaim from several critics’ circles, making him a strong frontrunner for the Oscar.

My Choice: Dan Lausten for Frankenstein

Best Film Editing: Andy Jurgensen for One Battle After Another

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One Battle After Another has been celebrated all season for its precise and impactful editing, which expertly balances large-scale action sequences with intimate character moments. The film won Best Editing at the Critics Choice Awards and earned recognition from the American Cinema Editors (ACE) Eddie Awards, highlighting its craft among industry peers. Critics have praised the editing for maintaining tension and narrative clarity throughout the film’s sprawling story, making it a favourite in the category heading into the Oscars.

My Choice: Michael P. Shawver for Sinners

Best Production Design: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau for Frankenstein

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Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau have created a visually striking world in Frankenstein, blending gothic grandeur with meticulous attention to detail. Their work has already been recognized with Best Production Design at the Critics Choice Awards and earned nominations from the Art Directors Guild, highlighting their ability to bring the film’s rich, atmospheric settings to life. They really brought Guillermo Del Toro’s vision to life.

My Choice: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau for Frankenstein

Best Costume Design: Kate Hawley for Frankenstein

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Kate Hawley’s costumes perfectly capture the film’s gothic tone and character depth. Already recognized by the Critics Choice Awards, Art Directors Guild and the BAFTAs, her work makes her a standout contender for the Oscar. I think Frankenstein will do well in all of the more visual categories.

My Choice: Ruth E. Carter for Sinners

Best Makeup and Hair: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey for Frankenstein

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The team’s work on Frankenstein is nothing short of transformative, with Jacob’s makeup standing out for its intricate detail and realism, bringing the character to life in a way that’s both haunting and unforgettable. Their work has already been celebrated by the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild Awards, earning widespread praise for its creativity and craftsmanship.

My Choice: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey for Frankenstein

Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson for Sinners

Ludwig Göransson’s score for Sinners is both powerful and memorable, weaving tension, emotion, and grandeur throughout the film. He’s already won Best Original Score at the Critics Choice Awards and earned praise from multiple critics’ groups for creating music that elevates every scene, making the soundtrack an unforgettable part of the film’s impact.

My Choice: Ludwig Göransson for Sinners

Best Original Song: Golden from Kpop Demon Hunters

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Golden has been sweeping awards across a wide range of ceremonies, from critics’ groups to music and film guilds, consistently appearing on year-end lists and winning multiple precursor honors. Its strong presence throughout the awards season has made it one of the most recognized songs in the category, keeping it firmly in the conversation as the Oscars approach.

My Choice: I Lied to You from Sinners

Best Sound: F1

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While F1 is nominated for Best Picture, this is the one award I genuinely see it winning. The film’s sound design is nothing short of cinematic engineering, plunging audiences into the roar of engines, the thunder of tires on asphalt, and the tension of every high-speed moment.

It’s the kind of technical achievement that sticks with viewers long after the credits roll. The soundscape drives the story forward, amplifying the drama and emotion in ways the visuals alone couldn’t.

My Choice: F1

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Yeah, duh — this one feels obvious. Avatar: Fire and Ash is a jaw-dropping spectacle, packed with stunning visuals, seamless CGI, and world-building on a scale few films can match. Every frame is meticulously crafted, making it clear why the film dominates discussions of visual effects this awards season.

From sweeping landscapes to intricate creature design, the film’s visuals are impossible to ignore.

Best International Feature: Sentimental Value

This race feels played out like a story already written. Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value has been racking up recognition on multiple fronts — it won the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival, received a 19‑minute standing ovation at its premiere, and then dominated the European Film Awards with six wins including Best Film, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and acting prizes for its leads.

It also made history with nine Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best International Feature Film, marking a major moment for Norwegian cinema. With that kind of widespread acclaim from critics and industry groups alike — and Joachim Trier solidifying his reputation as one of contemporary cinema’s most respected voices — Sentimental Value is positioned as one of the defining films in this category as the Oscars approach.

My Choice: Sentimental Value

And that’s a wrap on our Oscar predictions. From powerhouse directors and unforgettable performances to jaw-dropping technical achievements, this year’s nominees have left their mark on cinema. Some races feel locked in, others are wide open, and a few surprises could still shake things up on the big night. Fingers crossed the Academy gets it right, but, either way, these films and artists have made awards season one to remember.

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